Insufficient data has complicated the rollout of Coronavirus (COVID-19) “Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions” (NPIs) such as the closing of schools. Keystone has partnered with Susan Athey, Stanford Professor of Economics, and Marco Iansiti, Director of Harvard Business School’s Digital Initiative, to estimate the effectiveness of NPIs as a guide to policymakers, and to aid firms in developing strategic responses, respectively. We are building a comprehensive, highly localized and freely available data set of city, county and state rollout dates for NPIs. For more information or data access, contact us!
Scenario analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions on global COVID-19 transmissions
This paper introduces a dynamic panel SIR (DP-SIR) model to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the COVID-19 transmission dynamics with panel data from 9 countries across the globe.
Please see link to paper : https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.04529.pdf
What works against the spread of COVID-19?
With more detailed data on the varying introduction of policies across US counties and over time as well as the resulting spread of the disease we could provide evidence on which measures we should keep and which measures we should lift in order to reactivate the economy
Please see link to paper : https://firstname.lastname@example.org/what-works-against-the-spread-of-covid-19-c0ecd4888386
Income Effect and the Private Contribution of Public Goods: Household Mobility and the Economic Impact Payment during the COVID-19 Pandemic
This paper studies the public good nature of COVID-19 mitigation effort, and illustrates the relationship between income level and the voluntary contribution to the COVID-19 mitigation effort.
Please see link to paper : https://bit.ly/3lnnsGb
Weather, Social Distancing, and the Spread of COVID-19
Using high-frequency panel data for U.S. counties, this paper examines the full dynamic response of COVID-19 cases and deaths to exogenous movements in mobility and weather.
Please see link to paper : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/07/24/2020.07.23.20160911.full.pdf
Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists
A critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that have been influential in recent policy discussions. It notes potentially important features of the real- world environment that standard models do not incorporate.
Please see link to paper : https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/219111/1/cesifo1_wp8293.pdf
The COVID-19 Shock and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Credit Card Data
Using monthly credit card data from the Federal Reserve’s Y-14M reports to study the early impact of the COVID-19 shock on the use and availability of consumer credit.
Please see link to paper : https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3613408
Staggered Adoption of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Contain COVID-19 Across U.S. Counties: Direct and Spillover Effects
We estimate direct and spillover effects of social distancing measures intended to slow the spread of COVID-19 at the U.S. county level using mobility indicators based on cellphone data. We find that spillover effects range between a third and a half of the direct effect depending on the particular outcome or policy considered. Our results suggest that decentralized NPI decisions, which does not internalize externalities generated on surrounding locations, could result in lower NPI implementation and weaker reduction in mobility, and hence more personal contacts and interactions in leisure and work activities, which are the main driver of the COVID-19 transmission.
Please see link to paper : https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3657594
Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States
Here is a framework to use high-frequency indicators, such as electricity usage, for policymakers to assess the economic impact of COVID-19 in close to real time. We also examine the link between economic activity and mitigation efforts to help policymakers better understand the possible path of economic activity as lockdown measures are relaxed.
Please see link to paper : https://bit.ly/34w8fNg